Target Chance Planner
Find how many attempts you need to reach your chosen drop probability.
Pick a probability before you plan the grind
This planner works backwards. Instead of asking what fifty attempts might achieve, you choose a target chance and find the smallest whole number of attempts that reaches it. It is useful when you want a stopping point before committing time or currency.
A target is still a chance
With a 5% chance on every attempt, a 90% target needs forty five attempts. Forty four attempts fall just short; forty five put the probability a little above 90%. A miss remains possible.
Choose a target you can afford
Try several targets and compare the additional attempts. The jump from 90% to 99% can be much larger than the jump from 50% to 60%. Save those runs as named comparisons if you want to weigh the difference.
A 100% target cannot be reached in a finite number of independent attempts unless each attempt is already certain to succeed. For a budget decision, use the Drop Cost Calculator next.
Questions about Target Chance Planner
Why does the planner round up?
Attempts must be whole numbers. Rounding down could leave the resulting chance below your selected target.
What happens at a zero percent target?
No attempts are needed to meet a zero percent target.
Can this account for pity?
It uses constant independent odds. Use the Pity Counter Planner when you know a separate guarantee threshold.